White-tailed Deer Population Simulation Project

I would like to create a hypothetical model showing the spread of the deer population in Vermont if hunting was prohibited. The starting point would be a map of Vermont showing the current areas populated with deer and then I would have to do some sort of calculation using the current effect of hunting on the deer population and then a calculation with zero effect from hunting (because hypothetically there is no hunting). The output would then be a map of the population in however many years with the continued amount of hunting we have today and another map of the population in that many years without any hunting. 

After some difficult research on finding an input map for the current deer population in Vermont, I have run across a picture of a map of the U.S. with the white-tailed deer densities on the QDMA website. So I am hopefully in the process of getting my input map for my model. I then turned my research on similar publications done in Dinamica to figure out what my model should consist of. I looked at the publication called “Spatially explicit agent based model of rabbit population” which is a similar study on the spread of rabbit populations. This publication was a little confusing, but I was able to determine that my model also should be a spatially explicit (i.e. mimics environmental phenomena across space and time) agent based model (i.e. attempts to reproduce individual process of movement, behavior, birth, growth, and death according to a set of information). The authors took into account many attributes and parameters about the rabbits such as their : vision, energy spent to survive, maximum absorption of energy, energy spent to move, average lifespan, initial amount of calories, initial population, and maximum birth rate. When it comes to the landscape, they had it represented as a cell grid in which each cell contains a certain amount of resource. The attributes associated with the cells are the maximum capacity of resources (which are represented as the initial values on the landscape map) and the recovery rate of the landscape.

In the case of my project, I think I need to take similar if not the same attributes and parameters into consideration when trying to determine what a white-tailed deer population would look like without any hunting pressure. I also think that I would need to have some information on the suitability of the habitat in Vermont for deer in order to figure out how the population would spread. In the case of white-tailed deer, the resources needed to survive would be soft mast for foraging and wintering areas (which I found a map of in VT on the VT fish and wildlife website).  I think if those wintering areas have already been established then I can count those areas as suitable deer habitat for my model.

It is clear that much more research needs to be done on this project and it is much more complicated than I was thinking it would be. There is a lot of data that needs to go into this model in order to create a simulation of a spreading population and many parameters I hadn’t even thought of.

Spring Break in Texas

My spring break was spent in South Texas for a class called “Texas Wildlife Spring Break” (tough class, right?). This trip was 10 days long and we traveled from Corpus Christi and down around the border to Del Rio, and then back across to Corpus Christi. Being in Texas observing the environment and the wildlife, it was actually hard not to think about ecology. Most of what I thought about was how different the environment in Texas was than the environment of Vermont.  All of Texas was much drier and it seemed to get drier the more South we went. It was strange how Corpus Christi had palm trees and greener vegetation and as we traveled further, the vegetation started to get replaced with cacti and sparser. I thought it was interesting that Corpus Christi likely has a higher albedo than the Rio Grande Valley because there is greener vegetation in Corpus Christi and the Rio Grande Valley is part of the Chihuahuan desert which is mostly soil. The soil on the land surface is lighter than the green of the vegetation and therefore has a lower albedo.  I also thought about the differences in the soil in Texas versus the soil we see around here in Vermont.  In Texas, the soil seemed very sandy and rocky. I wonder if they were a different soil order than what we have here in Vermont…maybe aridisol? Perhaps the most interesting thing for me to see was that the difference in environment had such an effect on the plants and animals found in Texas. The plants and animals present in all of Texas are generally more tolerant to dry climates than the plants and animals found in Vermont.  It was also interesting to see that some animals were seen in Corpus Christi that were not seen in the Rio Grande Valley and vice versa. I’m so used to going birding in Vermont and seeing the birds in the vegetated forests and grasslands so it was weird walking around a desert where there was very little vegetation and still seeing birds and animals surviving there.

Exam Questions

1)      List and describe all six possible soil horizons.

Answer:

-The O layer is made up of undecomposed and decomposed organic material and humus.

-The A layer contains a high proportion of organic matter and is a leached mineral horizon.

-The E layer is lightly colored and is the zone of maximum leaching

-The B layer is the maximum zone of accumulation of weathering products like clay, silicate, and carbonates

-The C layer is relatively unaltered and is made of unconsolidated parent material

-The R layer is considered the hard bedrock layer

2)      Briefly explain the differences between C3, C4, and CAM plants and give some examples of each.

Answer:

-C3 plants have 2 molecules of three-carbon acid as the initial products of Carbon fixation. Most land plants are C3 plants. Examples: wheat, cotton, most trees

-C4 plants have a 2 stage strategy that keeps CO2 high and O2 low in chloroplast in order to maintain a vigorous Calvin cycle. This strategy uses malic acid and has a stage in the mesophyll cell and a stage in a bundle sheath cell. These plants can handle hot, dry conditions. Examples: Sugar cane, corn, crabgrass

-CAM plants are similar to C4 plants but their 2 stages are done at different times of the day. At night, the stomata open and malic acid is created and stored. During the day, the stomata are closed and the malic acid is used in the Calvin cycle. Examples: cacti, orchids, pineapple

3)      List the 4 dominating ecological processes in the dynamics of a system and determine which parts of the following situation fall under which ecological process:

A deer hunting plan has been put into place to control the density of the deer population in the state. The deer population eventually drops to an alarmingly low level. A change is made to the deer hunting plan to limit harvesting of the deer. The deer population begins to rise again.

Answer: The 4 processes are rapid growth, conservation, release, and reorganization. The deer hunting plan being put into place is the “rapid growth” stage. The population dropping to a low level is the “conservation” stage. The change made to the hunting plan is the “release” stage. The population growing in response is the “reorganization” stage.

Envisioning Environment at UVM - Undergraduate Level

The report I reviewed is “Envisioning Environment” at UVM. The purpose of this report is to develop an inventory and make recommendations about environmental research, education, and outreach at UVM.  The task had a broad focused on “environment, sustainability, and health” or ESH. I learned that the five major recommendations are to develop an ESH institute, create an associate provost ESH position, coordinate ESH graduate and undergraduate programs, expand graduate support, and finally to create an “environmental commons” or a physical and web-based place for ESH activity.

For the purposes of this blog, I focused my reading on the undergraduate education. I agree with the strengths related to ESH when it comes to undergraduate education. Being a part of the Rubenstein School, it is clear to me that we have many majors, minors, and classes related to various subjects relating to environmental health and its importance. There are many opportunities presented to students to become involved in the subject. I believe that we have a head start in that sense. I think it would also make sense for UVM to focus some time on marketing for our environmental education that we already have and try to spark some interest in the incoming students. I for one am very glad that I was drawn to the Rubenstein School and I think it is an area that will continue to expand and grow in the future. Something I’m not sure that I agree with, however, is that it is confusing to explain the range of options to incoming students. Sure, it can be confusing trying to decide on a major when you are coming into college, but I think all the information you need about each major is online. I think a “comprehensive advising map” would just be a waste of the school’s time and money when it comes to ESH.

It was helpful to see the view of UVM that this work group of people has and where we are in terms of environmental health. I think being in the Rubenstein School makes it easy for me to sort of assume that the whole school is constantly thinking about the environment and sustainability, but I have been reminded that isn’t the case and it is important that the awareness is spread.

Vegetation and Project Thinking

In my remote sensing class last semester, we did a lot of lessons using imagery from satellites to look at vegetation. A few of the corrections we focused on had to do with vegetation health. This reminds me of the MODIS images we looked at today in lecture showing the LAI values of different areas in South America. Until today I haven’t really been thinking about what I want to do for my project for this class, but I knew after taking remote sensing, the most interesting parts were always about vegetation.  Vegetation is always such an important topic because the basis of the carbon cycle, our source of oxygen and clean air, and even an indicator of soil, water, and air quality in an area. If there is a change at all in vegetation, it is something worth looking into.

I think it would be interesting to create a model to see how vegetation in a certain area changes over time. Whether vegetation levels decrease or increase is important, but it would also be interesting to see if the composition changes at all. Maybe natural species are slowly moving out while new species are slowly moving in or maybe the composition is staying the same. I’m still unaware of all the things Dinamica can do and all the possibilities the program has, but if there is a way to see how the species composition changes in an area over time, I think that would be an interesting project topic.

Talking about the movement of plant species also makes me wonder what exactly makes a plant an “invasive species”. The definition I know of invasive species is a species that is non-native to the ecosystem under consideration. We’ve heard over and over that ranges of plants and animals are changing with respect to climate change. If a plant that is not currently in Vermont suddenly slips over the border of a neighboring state into Vermont, is it an invasive species? Must it naturally occur in Vermont, or could it just be part of the natural movement patterns of the population? There was a time when no sugar maples or red oaks or any other plant for that matter existed in Vermont, so they all had to come in at some point…but that doesn’t make any of them invasive species?

Soils

The topic of soils was never all that interesting to me, to be honest. I have not taken a soils class in college, my only experience with learning about soils comes from a brief overview in biology and a high school earth science class. The only things I remember learning from these classes about soil is the different soil horizons and the differences between those horizons. In class on Tuesday was the first time I have ever heard about soil orders and those made the topic of soil a little less boring. It was interesting to see the effects that climate, weather and placement has on the soil and that those three things are essentially the deciding factors for which order of soil you will find in an area. It would be interesting to see the effects of climate change over the years on the soil types. Would they change at all and is it possible for the order of the soil to change?

                Another aspect of the soils that I found fascinating was the serious of slides showing the “black soils” of the south. At one point in the Cretaceous period, that area of Georgia and Alabama was the shore which caused the soils to be different than the surrounding soils. Even after the shoreline moved outward, the soils remained the same and the graph showed that this was the area with the best cotton crop and with a higher African American population. Eventually, the people living in this “black soils” ring became more democratic and voted for Obama while surrounding areas did not. It was very interesting to see the correlation between all these things and soils because it is something I never would have thought would be related. It just shows that where you are raised and the soils you live on have an impact on who you are. I have learned that soils are much more important in countless aspects than I ever thought.

"Totally Uncool"

The article I read is called “Totally Uncool” and I found it on the Seven Days website. This article talks about the effects of climate change on Vermont. I almost chose another ecosystem to write about (because I’m sure many blogs will be about Vermont), but my interest is mainly Vermont since it is the only state I have a real connection with because I’m a born and raised Vermonter.

This article lists the same effects that we have all heard before: warmer overall temperatures, altered migratory patterns, earlier plant blooming, and invasion of invasive species. One effect of climate change that was mentioned in the article is that precipitation in Vermont has increased by as much as 20% since 1970. To me, 20% sounds like a really big number and it made me wonder about the effects that change in precipitation has on the ecosystem of Vermont. Like where is all that extra rainfall coming from? Does that mean more water is leaving Vermont through transpiration and evaporation? And if this is the case, is it good or bad for the Vermont environment? And if that’s not the case, where is all that extra rain water going to end up? If it all runs into the lake eventually, we might be in big trouble. It is clear that the change in weather is playing a drastic part in climate change. The warmer weather is hurting plants and animals that need the cold from the winters we used to have and it is allowing warmer adapted non-native flora and fauna to take over. Some people may not see this as being a big deal, but what about those trees coming in that are better suited to warm weather? They’ll take over niches that were once reserved for sugar maples and for our sugar maple industry to take that hit will be a big deal. What effects will all these new plant species bring with them? Vermont isn't going to be what it used to be…I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to see Vermont without our 4 seasons!